Private-sector economists have reduced Brazil’s 2026 inflation forecast for the first time in over two months, a modest relief for the country’s central bank. According to the latest central bank survey, inflation is now projected at 4.45%, down from 4.50% previously. The central bank targets 3% inflation, with a tolerance range of 1.5 points. The updated projections come as officials express concern about inflation expectations drifting above target, despite the benchmark Selic rate holding at a restrictive 15%. Forecasts for 2027 held steady at 4%, while the 2028 estimate edged down to 3.80%. Meanwhile, 2024 inflation expectations continued to fall, now at 5.10% amid currency strength. Interest rate projections remain unchanged at 15% for 2025 and 12.5% for 2026.
