The Numbers
The leading indicators for the U.S. economy fell again in December, but a widely predicted recession still appears no closer than when a long losing streak first began.
The leading index slid 0.1% last month, smaller than the 0.3% decline forecast by economists polled by the Wall Street Journal.
The leading index is a gauge of 10 indicators designed to show whether the economy is getting better or worse.
Every other time the index has been negative for so long, a recession has taken place. Yet the economy has not followed the usual patterns since the 2020 pandemic.
Key Details
Six of the 10 indicators in the survey were positive in December, a big improvement compared to prior months.
Big Picture
Despite a period of high inflation and rising interest rates orchestrated by the Federal Reserve to get prices back under control, the economy has continued to expand.
The U.S. grew at a rapid 4.9% pace in the third quarter and is estimated to have expanded at almost 2% in the recently ended fourth quarter.
Economists are split on whether a recession is likely, but if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates this year it could help the U.S. to avert a downturn. Central bank officials have signaled they are probably done raising rates.
Market Reaction
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and S&P 500 (SPX) rose in Monday trading.
