Morgan Stanley analysts have recently taken a more positive outlook on global oil markets for 2024. In a report released on Monday, they highlighted inventory declines and revised their estimates for both oil demand growth and non-OPEC supply.
According to the report, the oil market has been tighter than anticipated, largely due to lower-than-expected supply from OPEC and the United States. The analysts also noted solid oil demand and an increase in flight schedules, pointing towards potentially higher jet fuel consumption this summer.
As a result, Morgan Stanley has raised its estimate for crude demand growth in 2024 to 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) from the previous forecast of 1.3 million bpd. Conversely, their estimate for non-OPEC supply growth has been reduced from 1.7 million bpd to 1.5 million bpd.
Encouraged by OPEC compliance, the analysts expect the oil market to remain balanced rather than being in a small surplus as previously predicted. This positive outlook has led to an upward revision of their expected price range for Brent, now projected to be between $80 and $85 per barrel, compared to the previous range of $75 to $80 per barrel.
In summary, Morgan Stanley’s revised view on global oil markets points towards an optimistic future with increasing demand and improved market balance. These projections indicate potential price increases for Brent crude.
