According to a survey conducted by The Wall Street Journal, U.S. crude-oil and refined fuel inventories are anticipated to experience modest declines in the upcoming data release from the Energy Department on Wednesday.
Crude-Oil Stockpiles
Analysts and traders, totaling nine in number, have projected a decline of 600,000 barrels in U.S. commercial crude-oil stockpiles for the week ended September 22. Out of these, six forecasters foresee a decrease while three anticipate an increase. Expectations range from a decrease of 4 million barrels to an increase of 2.5 million barrels.
Gasoline Inventories
Analysts predict a decrease of 200,000 barrels in gasoline inventories compared to the previous week. Estimates fluctuate from a decrease of 2 million barrels to an increase of 1.7 million barrels.
Distillates
Anticipated to mainly consist of diesel fuel, distillate stocks are expected to decline by 1 million barrels from the previous week. Forecasts range from a decrease of 2.6 million barrels to an increase of 1.1 million barrels.
The highly anticipated inventory data from the Energy Information Administration of the DOE will be released at 10:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday.
Refinery Use Forecast
According to recent forecasts, refinery use is expected to decline by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous week, settling at 91.4%. Analysts’ predictions range from a decrease of 1 percentage point to an increase of 0.6 percentage points. It is worth noting that two analysts did not provide a forecast.
Crude Supply and Inventory Changes
The American Petroleum Institute (API), an industry group, reported its own data for the week. According to a source, the API findings show a 1.6 million-barrel increase in crude supplies, a 70,000-barrel decrease in gasoline stockpiles, and a 1.7 million-barrel drop in diesel inventories.
Forecasts by Different Analysts
Here is a breakdown of the refinery, crude, gasoline, and distillates forecasts by different analysts:
- Again Capital: -2.6
- Commodity Research Group: -0.9
- Confluence Investment Management: 2.5
- DTN: -1.8
- Spartan Capital Securities: 1.4
- Mizuho: 2
- Price Futures Group: -4
- Ritterbusch and Associates: -1.5
- Tradition Energy: -0.3
- Again Capital: 1.7
- Commodity Research Group: 1.1
- Confluence Investment Management: -0.5
- DTN: 1.2
- Spartan Capital Securities: -1.9
- Mizuho: -1
- Ritterbusch and Associates: 0.4
- Again Capital: 1.1
- Commodity Research Group: 0.7
- DTN: -1.4
- Spartan Capital Securities: -1.3
- Mizuho: -1
- Price Futures Group: -2
- Tradition Energy: -0.6
Distillates:
- Again Capital: 0.6
- Commodity Research Group: -0.7
- Confluence Investment Management: -2
- DTN: -0.8
- Ritterbusch and Associates: -2.6
- Tradition Energy: -0.4
Note: All numbers are expressed in millions of barrels, except for refinery use, which is in percentage points.
